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January 15, 2013  Tue 9:48 AM CT

AGO: SEE CHART GET CHAIN FIND STRATEGIES
Assured Guaranty is down again today, but at least one trader is keeping the faith.

optionMONSTER systems show that a trader sold more than 2,000 January 15 calls, most for $0.15 against open interest of more than 18,000. At the same time, he or she bought corresponding blocks of the February 16 calls, with the largest prints going for $0.29. The volume was well above that strike's previous interest of just 337 contracts, clearly indicating a new position.

With just a few days left before the January options expire, this trade appears to be rolling that position forward and to a higher strike. The adjustment reduces the cost of the position and keeps the investor in the trade for another month. (See our Education section)

AGO is down 2.22 percent this morning to $14.55 after trading $0.30 lower earlier in the session. Shares of the financial-insurance company were up at $15.72 last week.
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Timing the Trade

Both break outs and a break downs need to have a couple things happen before it is considered a confirmed break out or break down by technical definition!  The only problem is that in today's market where things move much more quicker than they did just a few years ago, two days could wind up being the majority of the expected movement, if not the whole movement.

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