Cramer: Tech's low expectations get bid
Jim Cramer | [email protected]
You know what makes me confident that that could be the case? Take a look at Oracle. People sold that stock down to $31 and change when it reported, and ever since then it has been a slow and steady climb higher.
Now today, many people were buying nascent Oracles, stocks where the estimates had been cut already and people are pretty sure that the numbers will be ugly when we see them: Intel, Microsoft, and Apple.
When you buy stocks ahead of quarters where the numbers have already been slashed, then you know what you are getting into, and I can see people saying, "Look, at 10x earnings, I think I can take the risk that things will be OK even if they just miss the number but talk about how they will make future numbers."
I don't think that's a wrong calculation. Now you can't get away with that if you think that the United States and China are getting weaker, but you can if you say that inventories are really lean and that the second half shows promise and leave it at that.
Throughout yesterday's session I searched for reasons that tech could not only go up--that was China--but stay up. And that's because expectations have been slashed already and people think, rightly or wrongly, that that immunizes the stocks.
I think it can immunize them, but if they run for several days, the immunization will wear off, and the attempt-to-bottom process will start all over again.
Disclosures: Cramer's charitable trust is long AAPL and ORCL.