Cramer: Some premiums justified
Jim Cramer | [email protected]
The froth police make the simple analysis that we are using a different metric to measure new tech companies than we use for the rest of the stock market. I can't disagree. I don't like to measure companies by their revenue growth. Other than Amazon.com, it's been a fool's game, and while some of these companies might indeed be the next Amazon, others will implode, pleasing the froth police beyond all bounds.
The real plum would be a deflation of Twitter, because it is at the cusp of a social revolution that is pretty antithetical, at least for now, to showing profits. That's because profits are a sign of weakness, left to the Intels and Microsofts and Oracles of the world.
And the overvaluation--and I agree that these stocks are overvalued--doesn't just extend to cloud, social and mobile plays. Consider the rocket ships that are the Container Store IPO from a few weeks ago and Zulily from last Friday, the latter a boutique Internet play that has captured the love of moms and therefore the affection of Wall Streeters.
Plus, we have the relentless climb of 3D plays, such as 3D Systems, Stratasys, and now the newly minted Voxeljet, which was up another $9 yesterday. There seems to be no limit to the revolution that is 3D, until, of course, there is, and one of these companies misses and the stocks hit a retaining wall.
I say good luck to the froth police. They are indeed protecting and serving the marketplace, and perhaps someday down the road they will keep people from losing money with the same vigilance that they are keeping people from making money.
But here's what they don't see. There is another group of companies with tremendous momentum that are not only not overvalued historically but are moving up because earnings estimates--not sales estimates or page-view estimates or even endorsement estimates--keep climbing higher.
For example, what are we to do with Boeing? Here's a Dow stock that's up almost 90 percent, jumping gigantically because of orders from the Dubai Airshow that make it clear that the run in the stock may actually be justified. The new Dreamliner has got tremendous orders--you can't get a new one until 2020. But these orders today are from the much higher-margined 777.
Yes, the stock sells at a 50 percent premium to the average stock, but what should it sell at? A discount? Around the same as the average stock, even as it has the most visibility of any large stock I follow? How is it overvalued when we are just in year two of a typical seven-year cycle? Jim McNerney, the CEO, keeps delivering and delivering. It's amazing to behold, and it isn't about the cloud, the social media or your handset.
This week, we have a whole host of retailers reporting, and again, when I look at the group, I wonder if this group isn't undervalued, even after its recent run. Here's a group that had been kept down by the quadruple threat to earnings of the sequestration, the government shutdown, the endless taper talk and the woes of Obamacare. The only things the sector has going for it are the weather and gasoline.
Those negatives, though, have tempered earnings estimates that the two positives could trump. This is a huge sector that might still be undervalued.
And do we even have to go into the banks? If we get the prosecutions to stop, the lawsuits to go away and even a slightly higher 10-year Treasury while CD rates stay the same, the earnings could be munificent.
So you have a two-tracked market, the overvalued tech and the undervalued retail, banks, and industrials as represented by aerospace. I don't think the former will get in the way of the latter, and while the froth police try to do their round-ups, I just don't see how the rest of the market can be contained by that skepticism.
Disclosures: Cramer's charitable trust has no positions in the stocks mentioned.