Cramer: Industrials climb the hard way
Jim Cramer | firstname.lastname@example.org
I think these stocks are tip-toeing higher, not bursting to breakout levels.
I spent some time on Honeywell and 3M yesterday. Sure, some of it had to do with what I am thinking about their growth rates. But most of it was the way a parent looks at a child who is going off to college: "How did that stock grow up so fast? How did it get so big?"
When I traced over Honeywell and 3M, what I found was a peculiar reluctance to go higher, literally the whole way. The path to these prices was littered with downgrades when it comes to 3M. There was always an analyst who said that the valuations were unreasonable, every step of the way.
Honeywell? I think there were more people worried about a missed quarter than worried about missing more upside. Every analyst meeting was filled with trepidation, and most earnings notes were about how Honeywell better not miss or it is Katy-bar-the-door.
I found no notes of bravado that you would typically see at market tops. Instead, throughout the $40s, $50s, and $60s, analysts were commenting about how rich the stock was compared with expectations, not about how cheap it was. In truth, it was never cheap, except in hindsight.
Yep, it's been an odd run-up here, one that hasn't been embraced. One that analysts have looked askance at. One that they feel bewildered by, particularly if they got off the ship as so many did with 3M at much lower levels or simply lived in fear of a shortfall, as most of the recommending analysts on Honeywell surely did.
Disclosure: Cramer's charitable trust is long UTX.