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March 20, 2013  Wed 8:32 AM CT

SPX: SEE CHART GET CHAIN FIND STRATEGIES
Do you think that the Fed is going to back away from its bond-buying program today? Do you believe that the Russians are going to pull out every red cent from Cyprus tomorrow? (The deposits will already be taxed before they take them out, so they will pull out AFTER the tax.) If your answer is yes, then right now is the time to sell.

Do I think you should do it? I am cognizant that when the European Central Bank says it will provide liquidity it recognizes that the Cypriot banks will be nationalized almost immediately and will be wound down with tremendous losses to, yes, the ECB. That's the bearish scenario that makes the Fed irrelevant.

TheStreet.com logoI think that the ECB recognized--as did the International Monetary Fund when it came up with this plan--that every penny would come out of the banks when they open and that they have some contingency plan. But if you think they don't have one, don't just stand there, obey the bears and roll out.

I reiterate that I don't like the tape. I reiterate that I don't like that we have seen parabolic moves, and I do worry about Cyprus and the Fed.

But I think that when we look back, it might not be the watershed moment or two that people tell me I should be more fearful of. As stupid as the policy makers in Europe are, can they reach the same conclusions as the bears and act to save the situation and Uncle Ben?

I have trusted him for four years, and I am not backing away now.
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