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August 1, 2013  Thu 4:14 AM CT

POT: SEE CHART GET CHAIN FIND STRATEGIES
Potash gave up ground again yesterday, and a large trade is positioning for further losses.

optionMONSTER systems show that a trader sold 10,000 January 25 puts for the bid price $1.13 and, seconds later, bought 5,000 January 28 puts for $2.32. Volume was above open interest in the 25s but below it in the 28s.

The trader could be rolling a short-put position to a lower strike and doubling the size, but it is far more likely that this is a new ratio spread that would generate a maximum profit with POT down around $25 at expiration. That spread cost the trader just $0.06, which is the amount at risk if shares are above $28, so this is a low-cost way of taking a downside position. (See our Education section)

POT fell 8.31 percent to $29 even, continuing to fall with other fertilizer names for the second day in a row. The stock was last down at $25 in March 2009.

More than 179,000 POT options traded yesterday, compared to a daily average of 31,390.
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The Movement of Delta

In our last column, we spoke about delta. You might remember that we discussed what delta was and what factors affected or changed delta. As you recall, we stated that three factors will have an effect on delta. They were movements of time, volatility, and underlying price. Today, we want to take a further look into the change of delta, this time focusing on change due to the movement in the underlying price. 

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