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DRJ's Blog

September 24, 2012

If you don't have 8 million iPhones, you can't sell 8M iphones, so to say this is disappointing is stupid, but I LOVE stupidity, which is partly why Friday I said I expected shares to be soft today and tomorrow (Tues).

As far as the riot at Foxxcon, they shut the plant, idoling production and 80,000 workers, so that is the disaster du jour, not the fact that even AAPL can't sell iPhones it doesn't have.
 
Facts:

Sold 5M iphones in 3 days (SOLD OUT) AND over 100M ios devices were updated

Starts selling iPhone 5 in 22 other countries Friday (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland).

Options Tell:

Heaviest PUT accumulations at WEEKLY 680 strike, trading 3K over open interest. $675, $670 and $665 strikes all show heavy buying of puts for protection as well. I will be looking at selling puts and or put spreads on a dip to the $670 - $675 area.

Technicals:

My chart guy (Gary Berman of ClearView Trading) says look for $674 - $676, which would be 3.6% under where it closed Friday and I believe would be great level to own AAPL

On the way to there ($675ish) we see $686 as key, which we'll likely see and possibly violate if it can rebound to $696. That's why I'm thinking we see better entry tomorrow.

Also as I said Friday, look for more data Friday, not just from first week's sales, but from how iPhone 5 is doing in the additional 22 countries, most in Eurozone, where we will have estimates live during our trading session. 



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